李一平课题组欢迎您!
 
 
优秀论文  
Parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of water qual
发布人:lyp    发布时间:2018-09-05 15:24    访问次数:

Abstract

Lake Taihu was chosen as a case for parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of water quality simulation in large shallow lakes. Forty parameters in Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code model (EFDC) were filtered and analyzed. The results showed that parameters had a considerable influence on simulation and three groups of parameters related to algal kinetics (i.e. PMc, BMRc and PRRc), light (KeChl) and temperature (KTG1c) were very sensitive. For shallow lakes with frequent algal blooms, light extinction due to Chlorophyll-a is also a sensitive parameter. While the temperature effect coefficient for algal growth is sensitive for lakes with seasonal temperature variation. Sensitive parameters and their relevant uncertainty varied spatially. For high nutrients and algae concentration subareas, temperature was more likely to be a limiting factor, whereas sensitive factors could be light in lower concentration subareas. Since most sensitive parameters were related to algae, uncertainty in simulation increased with increasing algal kinetic processes over time and varied in different subareas. Lower nutrients and algae concentration subareas were more easily influenced by model parameters while nearshore areas were highly influenced by boundary conditions. For better simulation of water quality, variable stoichiometry phytoplankton models should be considered and zooplankton need to be integrated into the model explicitly rather than a fixed predation rate.

Key words

Lake Taihu;Sensitivity analysis;Uncertainty analysis;Water quality models

摘要:文章选取太湖作为典型大型浅水湖泊,对水质模块中筛选和分析得到40个模型参数进行了不确定性和敏感性分析。结果表明,参数对模拟的影响较大,其中藻类动力学相关参数(即PMC,BMRC和PRRC)、光照(KeChl)和温度(KTG1c)非常敏感。对于水华频繁的浅水湖泊,叶绿素a的消光系数也是一个敏感参数。而藻类生长的温度限制参数则对季节性温度变化较大的湖泊较为敏感。敏感参数及其不确定性在空间上变化显著,对高营养和藻类浓度的区域,温度更可能是一个限制因素,而在低浓度区域则可能是光照。由于藻类参数的敏感性,不确定性模拟随时间变化也较为显著。低营养和藻类浓度的区域更容易受参数影响而在近岸区高度则受边界条件影响较大。未来模型可以考虑变化学计量的参数并将浮游生物考虑进来


 

Copyright © 2016 All Rights Reserved.    河海大学李一平课题组
地址:南京市鼓楼区西康路1号    邮编:210098    email:liyiping@hhu.edu.cn